Bitcoin’s price could surge past $250,000 before the end of 2025, driven by an increasing fiat supply, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom. The primary catalyst for this bullish outlook is a potential shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE).
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin’s Price Tied to Fiat Supply Expectations
“Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat,” Hayes wrote in an April 1 Substack post. He argues that if the Fed pivots to treasury QE, Bitcoin’s local low of $76,500 last month marks the beginning of an upward climb to $250,000 by year-end.
The Fed has already reduced its Treasury runoff cap from $25 billion to $5 billion per month as of April 1, while maintaining mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff at $35 billion. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has hinted that the MBS roll-off could be reinvested into Treasurys, effectively keeping the Fed’s balance sheet stable. Hayes believes this will act as treasury QE, triggering a sharp Bitcoin rally.
Analysts Offer More Conservative Targets
While Hayes envisions a parabolic surge, other analysts predict a more measured increase in Bitcoin’s price. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, suggests that growing global liquidity could push BTC past $132,000 before the end of 2025.
Polymarket data further suggests that only 9% of traders are betting on Bitcoin hitting $250,000, while 60% anticipate a price peak of around $110,000.
Hayes Backs His Conviction with Aggressive Buying
Despite differing predictions, Hayes remains confident in his forecast. He revealed that he has been “buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500.” His capital deployment strategy will depend on the accuracy of his analysis.
“I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars,” Hayes wrote, adding that China’s monetary policy could also support Bitcoin’s ascent.
While Hayes’ target is ambitious, Bitcoin’s trajectory will largely depend on global liquidity trends and the Fed’s next move in shaping monetary policy.
